The August UK Market Briefing finds encouraging recruitment signals alongside soft official data. Unemployment held at 4.9% in April–June, vacancies fell to 707,000 in May–July, and July payrolls declined by 13,000 on the month and 94,000 on the year.
Stabilisation is not yet recovery
The KPMG/REC permanent placements index stopped signalling contraction after 45 months. This means recruiters no longer reported falling activity on average; it does not establish that placement volumes increased.
Temporary billings rose for a fourth consecutive month, while temporary vacancies increased for the first time in two years. Candidate availability continued to grow, but at its slowest rate in five months. These survey improvements can coexist with falling official vacancies because the measures capture different aspects of recruitment.
Regular pay rose 3.5%, with real regular growth of 0.5%. Public-sector growth of 6.1% exceeded the private sector’s 2.8%. The ONS seasonal adjustment review revised historical earnings data, so these figures should not be compared directly with those quoted in earlier briefings.
What this means for talent leaders
Review permanent hiring plans, monitor candidate availability and benchmark offers using current data. Contingent capacity can help test demand while permanent activity stabilises.
The briefing’s outlook remains conditional: employment growth requires hiring to recover, not simply stop falling. Energy volatility and inflation remain risks, while sustained improvements across several survey releases would provide stronger evidence of a turning point.