The July UK Market Briefing identifies tentative signs of stabilisation after a prolonged hiring downturn. Unemployment stood at 4.9% in March–May, while vacancies reached 712,000. The quarterly fall of 7,000 was within the survey’s confidence interval, making the vacancy picture broadly unchanged rather than clearly improving.
Recruiter evidence becomes more encouraging
June payrolled employment fell by only 4,000, while May was revised to a small increase. The KPMG/REC Permanent Placements Index rose from 44.1 to 49.1, indicating a much softer decline but remaining below neutral.
Temporary billings grew at their fastest rate since April 2023. Nursing, medical and care roles, alongside engineering, were the only sectors recording higher permanent demand; retail remained weakest.
Regular pay growth held at 3.4% and total pay rose 4.3%. Youth unemployment reached 16.4%, showing that improved aggregate signals had not translated into easier conditions for younger workers.
What this means for talent leaders
Employers should prepare for a possible recovery while continuing to distinguish stronger sentiment from increased hiring volumes. Flexible staffing can help test demand before permanent commitments, while current salary benchmarking remains important for priority roles.
Maintaining early-career pathways can build capability while candidate pools remain broad. The briefing’s outlook is cautiously stabilising, with any sustained recovery dependent on business confidence and the evolution of energy costs and wider uncertainty.